W2 Print-01 · Phase 1 · Assumption Mapping

🗺 Assumption Map

List every belief your idea depends on — then find the one most likely to kill it if wrong.

Step 1 — Brain-dump assumptions by category
Customer
Does this problem really exist for them?
Behaviour
Will they change what they currently do?
Value
Is our solution clearly better than alternatives?
Willingness to Pay
Would they pay, subscribe, or use this consistently?
Access
Can we actually reach these people?
Technical
Can this actually be built?
Step 2 — Plot on the Risk Matrix

Write assumption keywords in the correct quadrant. Top-left = your Critical Assumption.

↑ Importance (idea fails if wrong)
🔴 Critical — test today
✅ Confirmed
⬜ Low priority
📝 Noted
Low certainty → ← High certainty
🔴 Critical — test today
✅ Confirmed
⬜ Defer
📝 Noted

This is the belief that is both HIGH IMPORTANCE (if wrong, the idea collapses) and LOW CERTAINTY (you're mostly guessing). Bring this to the Prototype Plan (Print 03).