Build your market size from real customer counts, not research reports. Adjust the funnel to see what revenue opportunity is realistically available to your startup.
Market sizing is not about finding the biggest number — it is about proving you understand your customer. Investors do not fund markets; they fund founders who can explain precisely who will pay, how much, and why the number is credible. A €50B TAM impresses no one if the SOM is built on guesses.
Begin with an industry report (e.g. "the global CRM market is €50B") and apply filters to reach your slice. Fast to communicate, but easily manipulated — any filter assumption can make the number look good.
Count identifiable, reachable customers and multiply by realistic revenue per customer. Harder to fake. Investors prefer this because it forces specificity: which companies, which segments, how do you reach them.
Every possible customer for your category, worldwide, regardless of whether you could reach or serve them. Sets the theoretical ceiling. Formula: N customers × ARPC.
The subset of TAM you can realistically reach with your current product, geography, and go-to-market. Filtered by language, regulation, technical fit, and distribution channel.
What you can actually win in the next 2–3 years given your team, budget, and competitive position. This is your real target. Investors look here. A credible SOM requires a specific acquisition plan, not just a percentage.
Rate yourself and up to 4 competitors on both axes using the +/− buttons. White space between clusters is your strategic opportunity.
| Player | X score | Y score | Quadrant |
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Michael Porter argued that every sustainable competitive advantage falls into one of three strategies. Trying to be all three at once is a strategic trap — he called it "stuck in the middle". The positioning map helps you see which strategy you are actually pursuing, and whether your competitors are bunched together (an opportunity) or spread across different quadrants (a harder market).
Be the lowest-cost producer in the market. Compete on price. Win through volume. Requires relentless operational efficiency.
Offer something customers value so highly they pay a premium. Could be brand, design, features, integration, or service. Requires deep customer knowledge.
Serve a specific segment so well that no broad competitor can match you within that niche. Can combine with cost leadership or differentiation within the niche.
Porter's most important warning: if you try to be everything — cheap AND premium AND for everyone — you end up with none of the advantages of any strategy. You are too expensive for cost-sensitive buyers and not differentiated enough for premium buyers. On the map, this appears as a dot hovering near the centre with no clear identity. The fix: make a deliberate choice and own it.
White space — a quadrant with no competitors — is not automatically an opportunity. Ask two questions before pursuing it:
Yes — if customers exist in that quadrant but no product serves them. Competitors cluster together because they copy each other, leaving the outskirts under-served.
Yes — if nobody is there because customers don't want that combination. High price + basic features is usually empty because nobody buys it, not because it's untapped.
Model three futures for your startup over 18 months. Set different assumptions for each scenario and see the projected revenue paths side by side. The gap between scenarios reveals which assumption matters most.
Every business plan is a forecast — and every forecast is wrong. Scenario planning does not predict the future; it prepares you to respond to different versions of it. The discipline forces you to separate facts from assumptions and to identify which levers have the most leverage on your outcome.
Not a disaster scenario — a plausible bad outcome. High churn, slow growth, price pressure. The bear case tests whether your unit economics still hold under pressure. If you cannot survive the bear, your model has a structural flaw.
Your operating plan. Should be grounded in proven acquisition channels and comparable benchmarks — not best-case assumptions rebranded as realistic. Most investors read the base case as an optimistic scenario; plan accordingly.
A plausible upside — not a fantasy. Used to size the prize and set ambition. The gap between base and bull reveals what you need to unlock: a new channel, a viral loop, a partnership. If bull requires a miracle, it is not a scenario.
Flip your key strategic assumptions one at a time. See how each pivot changes the revenue outcome, time-to-first-revenue, and overall strategic viability. Use this to identify which assumptions must hold for your model to work.
Every business model rests on a stack of assumptions. Most founders present their model as if the assumptions are facts. Stress testing does the opposite: it treats every assumption as a hypothesis, then asks "what happens to the business if this is wrong?" The assumptions that break the model are the ones that deserve the most urgent validation.
A quick-reference guide to every abbreviation and concept used in this simulator. Keep this tab open while working through the other modules.